Michael Baxter, veteran Realtor, gives his state of the Poconos address
Michael Baxter likes to lose business.
The broker/owner of Michael Baxter and Associates Commercial Real Estate and Property Management is an established presence in the Poconos with his signage at many commercial sites. Baxter smiles when asked how reassuring it is when he sees the “sold” decal on his signs as he drives through the region.
“It absolutely is,” said Baxter. “I get the comment from a lot of people, ‘You must be doing great. you have a lot of signs out there.’ My answer is the sign guy is doing great. we like when the sign goes down.”
For Baxter, a 28-year veteran of the business, it’s more than the success of the deal to him and his company but that there is a churn of new businesses replacing the closed ones. An advocate of initiatives to encourage businesses to come to the Poconos, particularly those from out of state, Baxter says reducing empty buildings also gives residents a better feeling of quality of life.
He chairs four organizations, including co-chair of Citizens against Regulatory Excess, a proactive consortium of local business leaders that he co-founded with Chuck Leonard of the Pocono Mountain Economic Development Corp. as well as being a member of Monroe 2020. he said a recent survey conducted by C.a.R.E. confirmed dubious results, essentially that the Poconos and Pennsylvania at large is not business friendly as it was in the past.
“It’s to hard to get permits. I started my career bringing people from new Jersey because it’s easier (to run a business) here and now, it’s harder?” Baxter said. “We’ve gone from one extreme to the other. we need to be business friendly and attract businesses to the area. Those employees are going to buy the houses; so many are sitting empty. we need that economic development to absorb some of the residential market.”
Baxter, whose company’s reach extends to Pike, Northampton, Wayne, Carbon and Luzerne counties as well as the primary Monroe market, talks about the commercial development climate in the Poconos.
We’ve seen somewhat of a recovery in the commercial market. we saw quite a rebound in 2011 over 2010. Our numbers were up 31 percent from 2010 to 2011. to be fair, some of that was because 2010 was so bad. but it’s still a pretty significant increase and points toward a recovery. It’s certainly an increase in activity.
Is it the start of an upward trend in the commercial market?
“I see this as a trend but it is an inconsistent trend, which is sort of a contradiction but there are certain aspects of the market where we see a lot of activity and other aspects of the market where there is very little activity. It is an upward trend overall but there are still segments of the market that are suffering.
What business prospects have been viable?
Anything that has cash flow is a premium, a good return on investment like apartment buildings and strip malls. we sold a self-storage business last year. also, restaurants and delicatessens. There are a lot of investors looking for properties that don’t want to keep their money in the bank at two percent interest. Even CDs don’t pay much. so to get into an active real estate investment, there is a tremendous amount of activity for that. when we get properties like that, we don’t keep them very long.
How much commercial property for sale has no signage?
With a restaurant, we don’t put a sign on it. That could affect their business. we have a lot of confidential sales, about 20 percent, which is significant. That includes some bigger commercial ventures where we sign confidentiality agreements until they are completed, which we have in the works.
What caused that 31 percent growth?
A lot of our activity last year was leasing. last year, I would say 40 percent of our business was leasing and 60 percent was sales. usually it’s more like 75 to 80 percent sales and 20 to 25 percent leasing. That’s a good thing. Vacancies put stress on landlords, which put stress on the whole investment model of the landlord who owns the strip mall or office building and we don’t want to see that happen.
Our market is still out town. we do get a lot from the Lehigh Valley and Philadelphia and a lot from new York and new Jersey. There still are local players here. It’s still about 50/50.
Is vacancy rate still a concern?
Vacancy rate is recovering. I did a seminar at ESU about four years ago and the absorption rate in Monroe County was at a crisis level and since then we’ve seen a steady increase in absorption, which means renting space, leasing space. There was a time where we had a couple million square feet of empty space in the Poconos and that was only about four years ago.
So there is a lot of churn of business properties turning over to new ownership?
The difficulty is getting financing for properties like that. Banks are a little squeamish about restaurants because of the high failure rate. There are a lot of people who want to be in the restaurant business, don’t ask me why. It’ a tough business. We’ve gotten to the point where we don’t work with a buyer if they don’t have restaurant business experience. Even if they have a down payment, the banks don’t want to finance anybody without experience. The failure rate for a restaurateur without restaurant experience is even higher than a regular restaurant. (Note: overall, it’s reported nationally restaurants have a 90 percent failure within the first year of opening).
There are some in the real estate industry who feel the residential market has stabilized. what about commercial?
I think it has and it is related somewhat to residential, which is another reason why I’ve been so proactive on tying to bring jobs in the area, and which is why I work as the chairman of the PMEDC and the organization that we started — C.a.R.E. we need that economic development more than anything.
Do we have our quota of banks?
I think we’re maxed out. I think we have enough banks, enough restaurants,. we want to keep them full. I don’t think we have any new niches in the market for any new drugstores for a while. Especially national drug store chains have a very specific demographic that they’re looking at. if the numbers aren’t there, they’re not coming and I don’t see any of those on the horizon.
What is a good niche?
We’ve been getting a lot of activity on convenience stores, gas station convenience stores. we always have people looking at hotel sites, depending on the location. The only thing left in retail is specialty retail. we have enough retail for our population. My fear with developing more retail is that they’ll start hurting each other and we’ve already seen that with companies like Linens ‘n’ Things go out of business in a brand new center (Shoppes at Stroud on Rote 611 in Stroudsburg). That’s not good for anybody.”
I think the small and medium stores is where we see the most activity right now.
We do get a lot of medical inquiries. we need more industry in the area. if we bring in more industry, the offices will follow. There will be office business that needs to feed off those industries.
What is your marketing strategy?
It’s target real estate marketing. For example, if we’re marketing a restaurant, instead of putting in an ad in the Wall Street Journal or new York Times and hoping a restaurant buyer would see it on that particular day, we’re on restaurant websites, website trade magazines. It’s more expensive but we know we have more of a target audience, a captive audience. Everyone who subscribes to a trade magazine is in the restaurant business or wants to be in the restaurant business or works in a restaurant. Otherwise, why would he read it? Our website is category driven and not price driven.
What about the effect of tourism? Is that still a stronger market to work into the deal as an incentive with the economy reportedly picking up?
It does have an effect. we have a tremendous population within 100 miles of the Poconos, which is one of the reasons why the Poconos has thrived and continues to thrive, even though we’ve had our ups and downs. Our location couldn’t be much better. so tourism has a big part to play in our economy. I would like to see more of a balance between tourism and manufacturing and other types of industry.”
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<a href="http://www.poconorecord.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20120513/NEWS02/205130325/-1/NEWSMAPtag:news.google.com,2005:cluster=http://www.poconorecord.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20120513/NEWS02/205130325/-1/NEWSMAPSun, 13 May 2012 17:15:31 GMT”>’Sold’ is his favorite word